Utility of scores to predict alcohol use after liver transplant (lt): take them with a grain of salt

Background & Aims: The Sustained Alcohol use post-Liver Transplant (SALT) and the High-Risk Alcohol Relapse (HRAR) scores were developed to predict return to alcohol use after liver transplant (LT) for alcohol associated liver disease (ALD). Methods: A retrospective analysis of deceased donor LT 10/2018 to 4/2022 was performed. All patients (pts) underwent careful pre-LT psychosocial evaluation. Data on alcohol use, substance abuse, prior rehabilitation, and legal issues were collected. Post-LT, all were encouraged to participate in rehabilitation programs and underwent interval phosphatidylethanol (PeTH) testing. Pts with ALD were stratified by < or > 6 month sobriety prior to listing. Those with <6 month were further stratified as acute alcoholic hepatitis (AH) by NIAAA criteria and non-AH. The primary outcome was utility of the SALT (<5 vs. ≥5) and HRAR (<3 vs. ≥3) scores to predict return to alcohol use (+PeTH) within 1 year after LT. Results: Of the 365 LT, 86 had > 6 month sobriety and 85 had <6 month sobriety; 41 with AH and 44 non-AH. In those with AH, the mean time of abstinence to LT was 58 days, and 71% failed prior rehabilitation. Following LT, return to drinking was similar in the AH (24%) compared to <6M non-AH (15%) and >6M ALD (22%). Only 4% had returned to heavy drinking. The accuracy of both the SALT and HRAR scores to predict return to alcohol was low (accuracy 61-63%) with poor sensitivity (46% and 37%), specificity (67-68%), positive predictive value (22-26%) with moderate negative predictive value (NPV) (81-83%), respectively with higher NPVs (95%) in predicting return to heavy drinking. Conclusions: Both SALT and HRAR scores had good NPV in identifying patients at low risk for recidivism.