Navigating the path to dual carbon goals: Understanding the driving forces of energy transition welfare performance

China's double carbon target aims to improve human well-being and sustainable development. Energy transformation welfare performance (ETWP) is the efficiency of energy transition (ET) in enhancing human well-being. ETWP considers both human well-being and sustainable development. Research on its driving force is helpful in achieving the double carbon goal. Thus, this paper used Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Model, Fixed Panel Regression Model and Grey Relational Analysis Model to analyze China's ETWP from 2006 to 2022 and predicted ETWP of 31 provinces from 2023 to 2030. The results showed that: (1) ETWP had two rising periods in 2006–2014 and 2015–2022. (2) The government's rationalization policy on energy and environment and technological innovation ability were fundamental driving forces for improving ETWP. (3) There were obvious spatial and temporal distinctions in ETWP, and it would bring out different degrees in most areas. Thus, ET should be promoted by improving the ecological environment and resource utilization efficiency; The importance of the role of scientific and technological innovation and policies should be focused on in promoting ETWP; ET policies based on local developments should be formulated and the energy structure should be changed.