Refracture and mortality risk in the elderly with osteoporotic fractures: the AGES-Reykjavik study

There is imminent refracture risk in elderly individuals for up to six years, with a decline thereafter except in women below 75 who face a constant elevated risk. Elderly men with fractures face the highest mortality risk, particularly those with hip and vertebral fractures. Targeted monitoring and treatment strategies are recommended. Current management and interventions for osteoporotic fractures typically focus on bone mineral density loss, resulting in suboptimal evaluation of fracture risk. The aim of the study is to understand the progression of fractures to refractures and mortality in the elderly using multi-state models to better target those at risk. This prospective, observational study analysed data from the AGES-Reykjavik cohort of Icelandic elderly, using multi-state models to analyse the evolution of fractures into refractures and mortality, and to estimate the probability of future events in subjects based on prognostic factors. At baseline, 4778 older individuals aged 65 years and older were included. Elderly men, and elderly women above 80 years of age, had a distinct imminent refracture risk that lasted between 2–6 years, followed by a sharp decline. However, elderly women below 75 continued to maintain a nearly constant refracture risk profile for ten years. Hip (30–63