Explainable machine learning model for identifying key gut microbes and metabolites biomarkers associated with myasthenia gravis

Diagnostic markers for myasthenia gravis (MG) are limited; thus, innovative approaches are required for supportive diagnosis and personalized care. Gut microbes are associated with MG pathogenesis; however, few studies have adopted machine learning (ML) to identify the associations among MG, gut microbiota, and metabolites. In this study, we developed an explainable ML model to predict biomarkers for MG diagnosis. We enrolled 19 MG patients and 10 non-MG individuals. Stool samples were collected and microbiome assessment was performed using 16S rRNA sequencing. Untargeted metabolic profiling was conducted to identify fecal amplicon significant variants (ASVs) and metabolites. We developed an explainable ML model in which the top ASVs and metabolites are combined to identify the best predictive performance. This model uses the SHapley Additive exPlanations method to generate both global and personalized explanations. Fecal microbe–metabolite composition differed significantly between groups. The key bacterial families were Lachnospiraceae and Ruminococcaceae, and the top three features were Lachnospiraceae, inosine, and methylhistidine. An ML model trained with the top 1% ASVs and top 15% metabolites combined outperformed all other models. Personalized explanations revealed different patterns of microbe–metabolite contributions in patients with MG. The integration of the microbiota-metabolite features and the development of an explainable ML framework can accurately identify MG and provide personalized explanations, revealing the associations between gut microbiota, metabolites, and MG. An online calculator employing this algorithm was developed that provides a streamlined interface for MG diagnosis screening and conducting personalized evaluations.