Monarch Butterfly (Danaus plexippus) Roost Site-Selection Criteria and Locations East of the Appalachian Mountains, USA

The monarch butterfly is a flagship species and pollinator whose populations have declined by 85% in the recent two decades. Their largest population overwinters in Mexico, then disperses across eastern North America during March to August. During September-December, they return south using two flyways, one that spans the central United States and another that follows the Atlantic coast. Migrating monarchs fly diurnally and roost in groups nocturnally. We sought to determine the criteria this species uses to select roost sites, and the landscape context where those sites are found. We developed species distribution models of the landscape context of Atlantic flyway roost sites via citizen scientist observations and environmental variables that affect monarchs in the adult stage prior to migration, using two algorithms (Maximum Entropy and Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Prediction). We developed two model validation methods: a citizen scientist smartphone application and peer-informed comparisons with aerial imagery. Proximity to surface water, elevation, and vegetative cover were the most important criteria for monarch roost site selection. Our model predicted 2.6 million ha (2.9% of the study area) of suitable roosting habitat in the Atlantic flyway, with the greatest availability along the Atlantic coastal plain and Appalachian Mountain ridges. Conservation of this species is difficult, as monarchs range over both large areas and various habitat types, and most current monarch research and conservation efforts are focused on the breeding and overwintering periods. These models can serve to help prioritize surveys of roosting sites and conservation efforts during the monarchs' fall migration.