Legitimacy, risk perception, and adolescent crime in a Brazilian birth cohort

Background Perceived illegitimacy of the legal system and its agents is a known risk factor for crime. However, most studies are based in high-income countries and rely on cross-sectional designs. The current study investigates this relationship and the moderating role of sanction risk perception in a Brazilian birth cohort. Methods We used data from the 2004 Pelotas (Brazil) Birth Cohort Study (n = 1,510), a population-based, prospective longitudinal survey. Using adolescent self-reports, we measured perceived legitimacy of the police, the law, and the social system, along with risk perceptions at age 15 years. Past-year violent and non-violent crime were reported at ages 15 and 18 years. Binary logistic regression was used. Results Adolescents perceiving the police as illegitimate had increased odds of engaging in violent crime across adolescence, regardless of perceived risk of punishment. Perceived illegitimacy of the law and the social system was also associated with increased odds of violent crime at age 15 (but not age 18), especially for those perceiving lower risk of punishment. Discussion Police legitimacy emerged as a robust predictor of later crime, indicating that efforts to enhance police legitimacy could have lasting effects on crime reduction. Future legitimacy research may benefit from considering other crime prevention strategies, such as deterrence-based explanations. These may be particularly relevant for understanding the impact of legitimacy domains beyond the police.