Feasibility of hepatitis C elimination by screening and treatment alone in high-income countries.

BACKGROUND AIMS:Despite the availability of highly effective direct-acting antiviral therapy, chronic hepatitis C (CHC) continues to cause a major public health burden. In many high-income countries, treatment rates have been declining, which was exacerbated by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, threatening the ability to meet the World Health Organization (WHO)'s targets for eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) as a public health threat by 2030. We sought to model the impact of CHC in Canada, a resource-rich country with ongoing immigration from HCV-endemic regions; which relies exclusively on risk-based screening for case identification. APPROACH RESULTS:We developed an agent-based model to characterize the HCV epidemic in a high-income country with ongoing immigration. Combinations of prevention such as harm-reduction, screening, and treatment strategies were considered. Model parameters were estimated from the literature and calibrated against historical HCV data. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess uncertainty. Under the current status quo of risk-based screening, we predict the incidence of CHC-induced decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related deaths would decrease by 79.4%, 76.1%, and 62.1%, respectively, between 2015-2030, but CHC incidence would only decrease by 11.1%. Results were sensitive to HCV transmission rate and annual number of people initiating treatment. CONCLUSIONS:Current risk-based screening, and subsequent treatment, will be inadequate to achieve WHO goals. With extensive scale-up in screening, and treatment, the mortality target may be achievable, but the target for preventing new CHC cases is unlikely reachable, highlighting the importance of developing enhanced harm-reduction strategies for HCV elimination.