Future changes in tropical vertical velocity variance and precipitation variability

Understanding precipitation variability on subseasonal-to-decadal timescales is important because of its influence on regional water resources and hydrological extremes. The response of precipitation to global warming can be understood in terms of a superposition of thermodynamic and dynamic effects. The former has been studied on a range of timescales, including ENSO variability and precipitation extremes, and is strongly constrained by Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Changes in dynamics, however, modulate the overall change significantly and represent an important source of uncertainty in projected changes of hydrological cycle variability. Here, we investigate changes in the variance of vertical velocity in the tropics based on monthly outputs from the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble. We find a robust decrease in the tropical vertical velocity variance under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, even in periods where the underlying ENSO-related SST variance increases. This reduction in vertical velocity variance can be explained by the deepening of the troposphere, which increases the gross moist stability and thus the energetic demands for vertical motion. Finally, we investigate the influence of reduced vertical velocity variance on precipitation probability distribution and intensity.