Abrupt diatom assemblage shifts in Lake Baiyangdian driven by distinct hydrological changes and yet more so by gradual eutrophication

Lake Baiyangdian, the largest natural freshwater wetland on the North China Plain, has faced multiple stressors from anthropogenic disturbances and climate change, affecting its aquatic ecosystem over the past century. An improved understanding of the relationship between environmental stresses and ecosystem responses and the mechanisms underlying ecological shifts has significant implications for managing the aquatic ecosystem in Lake Baiyangdian. In this paper, we reconstructed the ecological changes in Lake Baiyangdian over the past 70 years based on diatom assemblages in a sediment core and identified ecological shifts by the Sequential t test Analysis of Regime-shifts algorithm (STARS) and a sequential F test. Our results revealed two ecological shifts. The first ecological shift in the diatom community occurred in approximately 1963, which was associated with the rather abrupt changes, i.e., damming in the basin. This hydrological modification prolongs hydraulic residence time and accelerates nutrient retention, consequently leading to an increase in eutrophic species. Subsequently, the second ecological shift occurred in the 1990 s, which was attributed to sustained nutrient loading due to human activity intensification as well as an increase in the regional temperature. Ongoing nutrient loading finally pushed the lake toward a driver threshold, leading to an abrupt shift in the diatom assemblage. Our study details the complex trajectories of aquatic ecosystem shifts driven by hydrological alteration, increasing nutrient loading, and climate change in Lake Baiyangdian and highlights the processes by which ecological shifts occur in response to both abrupt and gradual stressors.