Sleep-phasic heart rate variability predicts stress severity: Building a machine learning-based stress prediction model

We propose a novel approach for predicting stress severity by measuring sleep phasic heart rate variability (HRV) using a smart device. This device can potentially be applied for stress self-screening in large populations. Using a Holter electrocardiogram (ECG) and a Huawei smart device, we conducted 24-h dual recordings of 159 medical workers working regular shifts. Based on photoplethysmography (PPG) and accelerometer signals acquired by the Huawei smart device, we sorted episodes of cyclic alternating pattern (CAP; unstable sleep), non-cyclic alternating pattern (NCAP; stable sleep), wakefulness, and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep based on cardiopulmonary coupling (CPC) algorithms. We further calculated the HRV indices during NCAP, CAP and REM sleep episodes using both the Holter ECG and smart-device PPG signals. We later developed a machine learning model to predict stress severity based only on the smart device data obtained from the participants along with a clinical evaluation of emotion and stress conditions. Sleep phasic HRV indices predict individual stress severity with better performance in CAP or REM sleep than in NCAP. Using the smart device data only, the optimal machine learning-based stress prediction model exhibited accuracy of 80.3 %, sensitivity 87.2 %, and 63.9 % for specificity. Sleep phasic heart rate variability can be accurately evaluated using a smart device and subsequently can be used for stress predication.