Exploring the infectious contribution to intussusception causality using the effects of COVID-19 lockdowns in Australia: An ecological study.

INTRODUCTION:Intussusception is the primary cause of acute bowel obstruction in infants. The majority of cases under 2 years of age are classed as idiopathic with viral infection implicated as one of the causes. COVID-19 public health measures led to significant decreases in communicable disease prevalence. During these times, reductions in intussusception frequency were reported - reductions greater than would be expected with our previous understanding of its infectious aetiology. METHODS:We conducted a retrospective, multi-state, ecological study over a twelve-year period. Monthly case numbers of ICD-10-AM K56.1 'Intussusception' coded admissions were acquired from state-wide admissions datasets from New South Wales (NSW), Victoria and Queensland, representing 77.62% of the eligible Australian population. These counts within differing jurisdictional lockdowns were compared to non-lockdown periods in order to investigate a correlation between intussusception frequency and lockdown periods. RESULTS:We found a negative association between intussusception frequency and lockdown periods in both eligible states. The largest reductions were seen in the under 2 year age groups with Victoria experiencing a 62.7% reduction (Rate ratio (RR) = 0.37, p < 0.0001) and NSW a 40.1% reduction (RR = 0.599, p = 0.006) during lockdown times. Controls for variations in lockdown restrictions between both regional and metropolitan areas also showed expected decreases. CONCLUSION:Our ecological study demonstrates significant decreases in the frequency of paediatric intussusception admissions during the COVID-19 lockdown periods. The unexpected magnitude of the reductions suggests that the true proportion of infectious disease-caused idiopathic intussusception is greatly underestimated.