Predicting potential distribution, range change and niche dynamics for Saraca asoca (Roxb.) De Wilde: a threatened medicinal plant under climatic change

In the Anthropocene era, understanding the impact of climate change on niche shift, species distribution, and habitat change is increasingly important for the conservation of biodiversity. In this respect, species distribution models have been considered an important tool over the last decade. The present study illustrates distributional change, niche dynamics and climatic shifts of Saraca asoca (Roxb.) De Wilde in India, a proven medicinal plant and a listed threatened species by IUCN, under different climate change scenarios using MaxEnt. The robustness of the model was satisfactory (AUC = 0.936), indicating a good fit. There could be a significant gain in suitable habitat between the present and future scenarios, ranging from a minimum of 52,275.17 km(2) (RCP 2.6) to a maximum of 95,994.62 km(2) (RCP 4.5). In the future, the suitable habitat range would shift towards colder regions of India, where cultivation of S. asoca could be taken up, thus enabling effective management of the natural habitat and population of the species. This study will help understand the effects of climate change on S. asoca and its implications for conservation of the species.