Comparison of atmospheric radionuclide dispersion models for a risk-informed consequence-driven advanced reactor licensing framework

Current nuclear facility emergency planning zones (EPZs) are based on outdated distance-based criteria, predating comprehensive dose and risk-informed frameworks. Recent advancements in simulation tools have permitted the development of site-specific, dose, and risk-based consequence-driven assessment frameworks. This study investigated the computation of advanced reactor (AR) EPZs using two atmospheric dispersion models: a straight-line Gaussian plume model (GPM) and a semi-Lagrangian Particle in Cell (PIC). Two case studies were conducted: (1) benchmarking the NRC SOARCA study for the Peach Bottom Nuclear Generating Station and (2) analyzing an advanced INL Heat Pipe Design A microreactor's end-of-cycle inventory. The dose criteria for both cases were 10 mSv at mean weather conditions and 50 mSv at 95th percentile weather conditions at 96 h post-release. Results demonstrated that GPM and PIC estimated similar mean peak dose levels for large boiling water reactors in the farfield case, placing EPZ limits beyond current regulations. For ARs with source terms remaining in the nearfield, PIC modeling without specific nearfield considerations could result in excessively high doses and inaccurate EPZ designations. PIC dispersion demonstrated an order of magnitude higher estimate of nearfield inhalation dose contribution when compared to GPM results. Both models significantly reduced EPZ sizing within the nearfield. Thus, reductions in the AR source term may eliminate the need for a separate EPZ.