Income Trajectories and Precarity in Later life

This paper captures trajectories of income in later-life and considers how membership of particular income trajectories is patterned by social class, sex and precarity in housing, pensions relationships, care and retirement. Using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (2002-19) for over-50s, latent class analysis identifies 10 income trajectory clusters and on the basis of comparable income levels from around statutory retirement age (65), we further condense these clusters to four income trajectory groups of ‘Luxury’ (at or above £500 per week in retirement; 14%), Comfortable (£300-£500 per week in retirement; 28%), ‘Boom-to-Bust’ (increasing to £600 per week at age 70, falling to around £200 over age 80; 4%) and ‘Always Poor’ (typically less than £300 per week in retirement; 54%). Experiences of precarity and lower socio-economic position are independently associated with greater relative risks of being ‘Always Poor’ and lower relative risks of being in the ‘Luxury’ group, compared to the ‘Comfortable’ group. For example, those who always rent a house are 2 times ( p < 0.001) more likely to be ‘Always Poor’ and 0.32 times ( p < 0.001) less likely to be in the ‘Luxury’ than ‘Comfortable group. Women are at more risk of being ‘Always Poor’ (RRR = 1.34, p < 0.001) in an unadjusted model, but the association attenuates and is not significant after controlling for pensions and partnership dissolution. Within groups, there are differences in the extent of volatility in income trajectories around retirement age across the ten clusters, that is associated with social class, pension type, involuntary retirement and partnership dissolution.