Prediction of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels using machine learning methods

Objective Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) has been commonly calculated by equations, but their performance has not been entirely satisfactory. This study aimed to develop a more accurate LDL-C prediction model using machine learning methods.Methods The study involved predicting directly measured LDL-C, using individual characteristics, lipid profiles, and other laboratory results as predictors. The models applied to predict LDL-C values were multiple regression, penalized regression, random forest, and XGBoost. Additionally, a novel 2-step prediction model was developed and introduced. The machine learning methods were evaluated against the Friedewald, Martin, and Sampson equations.Results The Friedewald, Martin, and Sampson equations had root mean squared error (RMSE) values of 12.112, 8.084, and 8.492, respectively, whereas the 2-step prediction model showed the highest accuracy, with an RMSE of 7.015. The LDL-C levels were also classified as a categorical variable according to the diagnostic criteria of the dyslipidemia treatment guideline, and concordance rates were calculated between the predictive values obtained from each method and the directly measured ones. The 2-step prediction model had the highest concordance rate (85.1%).Conclusion The machine learning method can calculate LDL-C more accurately than existing equations. The proposed 2-step prediction model, in particular, outperformed the other machine learning methods.