Research on energy efficiency and decarbonization pathway of nearly zero energy buildings based on system dynamic simulation

Accounting for over 40% of the total energy consumption, the global building sector is pivotal for achieving carbon peak and neutrality objectives. The intricate nature of building carbon emissions, influenced by spatial, temporal, and multifactor coupling, poses challenges on implementing carbon-neutral technologies and conservation strategies. This study focuses on nearly zero energy buildings in China and employs system dynamics to predict energy consumption and carbon emissions according to various scenarios, unveiling influencing patterns and viable emission reduction pathways. The results highlight the substantial impact of enhancing energy conservation awareness as this leads to a 36.4% reduction in energy consumption and a 44.2% reduction in carbon emissions. To attain energy efficiency and carbon reduction goals, a comprehensive approach is essential, encompassing improved building performance, heightened resident energy awareness, increased renewable energy use, and energy landscape adjustments. These findings inform future building energy and carbon emission regulations and offer valuable policy insights.