Predictive Model for Severe Coronary Artery Calcification in ESKD Patients

Introduction The Agatston coronary artery calcification score (CACS) is an assessment index for coronary artery calcification (CAC). This study aims to explore the characteristics of CAC in end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients and establish a predictive model to assess the risk of severe CAC in patients. Methods CACS of ESKD patients was assessed using an electrocardiogram-gated coronary computed tomography (CT) scan with the Agatston scoring method. A predictive nomogram model was established based on stepwise regression. An independent validation cohort comprised of patients with ESKD from multicentres. Results 369 ESKD patients were enrolled in the training set, and 127 patients were included in the validation set. In the training set, the patients were divided into three subgroups: no calcification (CACS = 0, n = 98), mild calcification (0 < CACS ≤ 400, n = 141) and severe calcification (CACS > 400, n = 130). Among the four coronary branches, the left anterior descending branch (LAD) accounted for the highest proportion of calcification. Stepwise regression analysis showed that age, dialysis vintage, β-receptor blocker, calcium-phosphorus product (Ca × P), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) level were independent risk factors for severe CAC. A nomogram that predicts the risk of severe CAC in ESKD patients has been internally and externally validated, demonstrating high sensitivity and specificity. Conclusion CAC is both prevalent and severe in ESKD patients. In the four branches of the coronary arteries, LAD calcification is the most common. Our validated nomogram model, based on clinical risk factors, can help predict the risk of severe coronary calcification in ESKD patients who cannot undergo coronary CT analysis. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This work was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81270408, 81570666), International Society of Nephrology (ISN) Clinical Research Program (18-01-0247), Jiangsu Provincial Special Program of Medical Science (BL2014080), Construction Program of Jiangsu Provincial Clinical Research Center Support System (BL2014084), Chinese Society of Nephrology (13030300415), Jiangsu Province Key Medical Personnel Project (RC201162, ZDRCA2016002), Six Major Talents Summit of Jiangsu Province (2010-WS-026). ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: This study was approved by the ethics committee of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University (ethics No.: 2011-sr-072. 2019-sr-368). I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, upon reasonable request.