Real-Time Lightning Stroke Area Trend Prediction Based on Lightning Energy Estimation

Lightning prediction has been a worldwide problem. Based on realtime lightning detection data, this paper predicts the grid area where lightning strokes may occur within half an hour in the future, and the area is about 28 square kilometers. The prediction steps are as follows: (1) Grid the Suzhou area. (2) Divide the realtime detected lightning data into each grid. (3) Predict the direction of thundercloud movement according to the change of lightning energy in each grid. (4) Estimate the lightning energy of each grid in the future period according to the lightning energy change curve. (5) Early warnings of power equipment in each grid are given. In the actual lightning grid area in the future period, the predicted coverage rate can reach 80%. In the lightning grid area predicted in the future period, the prediction success rate is generally 60% where the proportion of predicted lightning energy close to the actual lightning energy reaches 90%. The predicted grid size and early warning time studied in this paper can ensure sufficient time to regulate the electrical equipment in the grid where lightning strokes may occur in the future.