The future burden of type 2 diabetes in Belgium: a microsimulation model

To forecast the annual burden of type 2 diabetes and related socio-demographic disparities in Belgium until 2030. This study utilized a discrete-event transition microsimulation model. A synthetic population was created using 2018 national register data of the Belgian population aged 0–80 years, along with the national representative prevalence of diabetes risk factors obtained from the latest (2018) Belgian Health Interview and Examination Surveys using Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) as inputs to the Simulation of Synthetic Complex Data (simPop) model. Mortality information was obtained from the Belgian vital statistics and used to calculate annual death probabilities. From 2018 to 2030, synthetic individuals transitioned annually from health to death, with or without developing type 2 diabetes, as predicted by the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score, and risk factors were updated via strata-specific transition probabilities. A total of 6722 [95