Influence of climatic conditions on forest fires in Central Yakutia

The activity of forest fires has greatly increased in recent years in Central Yakutia. This can lead to the radical transformation of permafrost landscapes and their degradation. This study aimed to determine the effects of climatic conditions on forest fire activity in this area. We analyzed data on air temperature and rainfall during the fire season from 2000 to 2020. The total annual burned areas have noticeably increased since the 2000s. Forest fires covered an area of more than a million hectares in 2002 and 2011. This trend was associated with climate change. The mean annual air temperature in Yakutsk increased by approximately 2 °C from 2000 to 2020, while the summer precipitation decreased. Both air temperature and the amount of precipitation during the fire season affect the accumulation of dry combustible material under the forest canopy, which determines whether favorable conditions are created for the spread of forest fires over large areas. We showed which climatic conditions are typical for periods of high and low fire activity. We analyzed the climatic conditions of certain years with the maximum and minimum burnt areas. Fire activity in the study area depends on the climatic conditions at the beginning of the fire season. High fire activity occurs at very high air temperatures; however, the predominant role is the deficiency of precipitation. The study of the dependence of forest fire activity on climatic conditions is important for estimating the consequences caused by climate change in permafrost landscapes.