The Impact of Industrial Structure Evolution on Fiscal Revenue in Shenzhen China

•The inherent regularity between the public fiscal revenue and the upgrading of industrial structure in the process of urban economic development is investigated.•Bayesian structure time series (BSTS) model is employed by using Shenzhen's data with time span 1996-2020 to conduct the impact of Shenzhen's industrial structure evolution on its overall fiscal revenue; on transfer tax, income tax and property tax; and on the tax revenue of seven sectors.•We find that from 2000 to 2017, Shenzhen's industrial structure evolution has a significantly positive impact on fiscal revenue. It shows a steady and positive trend from 2000 to 2004, increasing to a peak in 2006, and going downward. In 2018, although the proportion of the tertiary industry in Shenzhen was relatively high, there was a negative shock towards the development of the tertiary industry.•The upgrading of Shenzhen's industrial structure has the largest cumulative effect on real estate tax revenue, and has the smallest effect on the tax revenue of manufacture, architecture, and transportation sectors.