The uncertain future of mountaintop-removal-mined landscapes 2: Modeling the influence of topography and vegetation

Erosion following human disturbance threatens ecosystem health and inhibits effective land use. Mountaintop removal/valley fill (MTR/VF) mined landscapes of the Appalachian Coalfields region, USA, provide a unique opportunity to quantify the geomorphic trajectory of disturbed lands. Here we assess how MTR/VF-induced changes to topography and vegetation influence spatiotemporal erosion patterns in five mined watersheds. We use landscape evolution models starting from pre-and post-MTR/VF topographic data to isolate the influence of mining-induced topographic change. We then constrain ranges of erodibility from incision depths of gully fea-tures on mine margins, and use those estimates to model the influence of vegetation recovery trends on erosion. Topographic alterations alone reduce total sediment export from mined catchments. Model runs that incor-porate the disturbance and recovery of vegetation in mined watersheds show that complete vegetation recovery keeps millennial sediment export from mined catchments within the range of unmined catchments. If vegetation recovery is anything less than complete, vegetation disturbance drives greater total sediment export from mined catchments than unmined catchments. Full vegetation recovery causes sediment fluxes to decline over millennia beyond the recovery period, while watersheds without full recovery experience fluxes that increase over the same time period. Spatiotemporal erosion trends depend on 1) the extent of vegetation recovery and 2) the extent to which MTR/VF creates slope-area disequilibrium. Valley fills and mine scarps experience erosion rates several times higher than those found in the unmined landscapes. Rapid erosion of mined areas drives deposition in colluvial hollows, headwater stream valleys, and below scarps. Our experiments suggest that reclamation focused on maximizing vegetation recovery and reducing hotspots of slope-area disequilibrium would reduce MTR's influence on Appalachian watersheds both during and long after the vegetation recovery period. Insights from MTR/VF-influenced landscapes can inform mined land management as the renewable energy transition drives increased surface mining.