Severe 21st-century ocean acidification demands continuance and expansion of Antarctic Marine Protected Areas

Abstract Antarctic coastal waters are home to several established or proposed Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) supporting exceptional biodiversity, which is threatened by anthropogenic climate change. Despite a particular sensitivity to ocean acidification (OA), little is known about the future carbonate chemistry of high-latitude Southern Ocean waters. Here, we use a high resolution ocean–sea ice–biogeochemistry model with realistic ice-shelf geometry to investigate 21 st -century OA in Antarctic MPAs under four emission scenarios. By 2100, we project surface pH declines of up to 0.42 (total scale), corresponding to a 161% increase in hydrogen ion concentration relative to the 1990s. End-of-century aragonite undersaturation is ubiquitous across MPAs under the three highest emission scenarios. Vigorous vertical mixing of anthropogenic carbon on the continental shelves produces severe OA within the Weddell Sea, East Antarctic, and Ross Sea MPAs. Our findings call for continuity and expansion of Antarctic MPAs to reduce pressures on ecosystem integrity.