Uncertainty Assessment in the Prediction of Selected Fission Products in the Case of a Postulated Severe Accident Scenario at VVER-1000

Abstract The aim of the paper is to present the results and insights gained from the analysis of the postulated severe accident scenario for the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) equipped with a VVER-1000, focusing on the uncertainty assessment in the prediction of selected Fission Products (FPs). To this end, the simulation of the Large Break Loss of Coolant Accident (LB LOCA) along with a Station Blackout (SBO) scenario was carried out. The capabilities of the ASTECv2.2.0.1 [1] severe accident (SA) code along with the uncertainty quantification tool – SUNSET [2] in the coupled mode was used. The analysis was carried out for the eight input variables and ten output variables. The uncertainty quantification method incorporated within the SUNSET statistical tool was used in order to conduct the present analysis. Based on the Wilks’ formula, the number of ASTEC code runs was determined. The main statistical data are obtained for the selected fission products as figures of merit. The main steps of the analysis are outlined. Furthermore, a brief overview of the SUNSET/ASTECv2.2.0.1 coupling procedures [3] is also presented and discussed. This work demonstrates the application of the uncertainty quantification methodology in the analyses of the severe accidents in the Nuclear Power Plants and provides the specific recommendations of its use. The main outcomes from the assessment provided will be useful and may be a base for the future analyses related to the evaluation of the safety of the VVER-1000.