Protected Area Network Contributions to Landscape Connectivity under Global Change

Abstract Context Both anthropogenic change and environmental variability cause spatiotemporal fluctuations in the availability of habitat on a landscape. Land acquisition and restoration for conservation also facilitates dynamic habitat accessibility. Accounting for these spatiotemporal dynamics is critical to the success of conservation planning to increase landscape connectivity. Objectives We aimed to forecast the individual and interactive effects of anthropogenic change, environmental variability, and conservation action on landscape connectivity over time. In doing so, we sought to evaluate the capacity of conservation actions intended to enhance connectivity to keep pace with global change. Methods We used a landscape change model to simulate strategies for the expansion of protected area networks on a ~1.5 million ha landscape in North Carolina. We forecasted spatiotemporal changes (2020-2100) to complex habitat networks across multiple scenarios of climate and land-use change, using graph theory to assess the variance in connectivity between conservation strategies and among global change futures. Results Both climate and land-use change reduced the influence of conservation on landscape connectivity, but through different mechanisms. Climate change increased available longleaf pine habitat, improving overall landscape connectivity and camouflaging connectivity improvements from conservation. Land-use change reduced the connectivity improvements facilitated by conservation as the cost of movement between habitat patches increased. Conclusion Rather than acting synergistically with land-use change, climate change negated the connectivity declines from land-use change in the study area. More broadly, our approach to forecast landscape-level responses to climate change, land-use change, and management can support the identification of conservation strategies that are more robust to global change, better enhancing landscape connectivity.