Research on the Carbon Emission Prediction of Chongqing Transportation Industry Based on Scenario Analysis

The “double carbon” target reflects the new goals and requirements of China entering a new stage of development. In order to achieve the goal of Chongqing’s carbon peak, it is a timely and urgent problem to analyze the carbon emission level of Chongqing’s transportation industry. Based on the data on per capita GDP, passenger transport turnover, freight transport turnover, energy intensity, urbanization rate, private car ownership, and energy structure of Chongqing from 2000 to 2020, this paper applies the extended SRTIRPAT model to predict the carbon emissions of Chongqing’s transportation industry from 2021 to 2035 with different scenarios. Finally, this paper puts forward some appropriate suggestions based on the prediction results.