Analysis of the mutation dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 reveals the spread history and emergence of RBD mutant with lower ACE2 binding affinity

Summary Monitoring the mutation dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 is critical for the development of effective approaches to contain the pathogen. By analyzing 106 SARS-CoV-2 and 39 SARS genome sequences, we provided direct genetic evidence that SARS-CoV-2 has a much lower mutation rate than SARS. Minimum Evolution phylogeny analysis revealed the putative original status of SARS-CoV-2 and the early-stage spread history. The discrepant phylogenies for the spike protein and its receptor binding domain proved a previously reported structural rearrangement prior to the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. Despite that we found the spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 is particularly more conserved, we identified a receptor binding domain mutation that leads to weaker ACE2 binding capability based on in silico simulation, which concerns a SARS-CoV-2 sample collected on 27 th January 2020 from India. This represents the first report of a significant SARS-CoV-2 mutant, and requires attention from researchers working on vaccine development around the world. Highlights Based on the currently available genome sequence data, we provided direct genetic evidence that the SARS-COV-2 genome has a much lower mutation rate and genetic diversity than SARS during the 2002-2003 outbreak. The spike (S) protein encoding gene of SARS-COV-2 is found relatively more conserved than other protein-encoding genes, which is a good indication for the ongoing antiviral drug and vaccine development. Minimum Evolution phylogeny analysis revealed the putative original status of SARS-CoV-2 and the early-stage spread history. We confirmed a previously reported rearrangement in the S protein arrangement of SARS-COV-2, and propose that this rearrangement should have occurred between human SARS-CoV and a bat SARS-CoV, at a time point much earlier before SARS-COV-2 transmission to human. We provided first evidence that a mutated SARS-COV-2 with reduced human ACE2 receptor binding affinity have emerged in India based on a sample collected on 27th January 2020.