Robust CO2-abatement from early end-use electrification under uncertain power transition speed in China's netzero transition
arxiv(2023)
摘要
Decarbonizing China's energy system requires both greening the power supply
and end-use electrification. While the latter speeds up with the electric
vehicle adoption, a rapid power sector transformation can be technologically
and institutionally challenging. Using an integrated assessment model, we
analyze the synergy between power sector decarbonization and end-use
electrification in China's net-zero pathway from a system perspective. We show
that even with a slower coal power phase-out, reaching a high electrification
rate of 60% by 2050 is a robust optimal strategy. Comparing emission intensity
of typical end-use applications, we find most have reached parity with
incumbent fossil fuel technologies even under China's current power mix due to
efficiency gains. Since a 10-year delay in coal power phase-out can result in
an additional cumulative emission of 28% (4%) of the global 1.5{\deg}C
(2{\deg}C) CO2 budget, policy measures should be undertaken today to ensure a
power sector transition without unexpected delays.
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