Effect of carbohydrate restriction on body weight in overweight and obese adults: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of 110 randomized controlled trials

Introduction: Carbohydrate-restricted diets are one of the most effective dietary interventions for weight loss. However, the optimum carbohydrate intake for implementing the most effective weight-loss interventions is still being discussed. We aimed to determine the optimum carbohydrate intake for short- and long-term weight loss in adults with overweight and obesity.Methods: We searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and CENTRAL from inception to May 2021 for randomized controlled trials examining the effect of a carbohydrate-restricted diet (<= 45% of energy intake) as compared to a control diet (carbohydrate intake >45% of energy intake) on body weight in adults with overweight/obesity. A random-effects dose-response meta-analysis was conducted to calculate the mean difference for each 10% decrease in carbohydrate intake at the 6-month follow-up (1 to 6 months), 12-month follow-up (6 to 12 months), and follow-up longer than 12 months. The shape of the dose-dependent effects was also evaluated. The certainty of the evidence was rated using the GRADE approach. The minimal clinically important difference (MCID) threshold was defined as 5% weight loss (equal to 4.39 kg).Results: A total of 110 trials were selected for the present meta-analysis. In the linear dose-response meta-analysis, each 10% decrease in carbohydrate intake reduced body weight by 0.64 kg (95% CI: -0.79 to -0.49; n = 101 trials with 4,135 participants, high-certainty evidence) at the 6-month follow-up and by 1.15 kg (95% CI: -1.61 to -0.69; 42 trials with 2,657 participants, moderate-certainty evidence) at the 12-month follow-up. Non-linear dose-response meta-analyses indicated a monotonic reduction in body weight with the decrease in carbohydrate intake, with the greatest reduction at 5% at the 6-month follow-up (mean difference 5%: -3.96 kg, 95% CI: -4.92 to -3.00) and 10% at the 12-month follow-up (mean difference 10%: -6.26 kg, 95% CI: -10.42 to -2.10). At follow-up longer than 12 months, dose-response analyses suggested a non-linear effect, wherein carbohydrate intakes higher than 40% and lower than 30% were not effective for weight loss.Discussion: Carbohydrate restriction is an effective dietary strategy for important weight loss in adults with overweight and obesity. At 6-month and 12-month follow-ups, body weight decreased proportionally, more than the MCID threshold, along with the decrease in carbohydrate intake. At follow-up longer than 12 months, there was a non-linear effect, with the greatest reduction at 30% carbohydrate intake.