A stochastic SIHR epidemic model with general population-size dependent contact rate and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process: dynamics analysis
Nonlinear Dynamics(2024)
摘要
The purpose of this work is to investigate a novel stochastic SIHR epidemic model, which includes a general incidence rate and mean-reversion Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. Firstly, the existence of global positivity of the solution is testified by Lyapunov function. Secondly, this disease will be eradicated if the reproduction number ℛ_0^s<1 . Otherwise, if the reproduction number ℛ_0^*>1 , then the system has a stationary distribution, which means that the pandemic will persist. In addition, an explicit expression of the probability density function for a linear system near quasi-endemic equilibrium is obtained under certain conditions. Finally, a series of numerical simulations is carried out to validate the theoretical conclusions.
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关键词
Stochastic SIHR epidemic model,Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process,Extinction,Stationary distribution,Probability density function
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