Extreme storm surges due to global warming in east asia based on a maximum potential storm surge model

Based on climate projections considering global warming, various impact assessments have been made for temperature, precipitation, water resources, and sea-level rise (e.g., IPCC AR6, 2021). In coastal areas, sea-level rise is mainly important as a gradual change in the coastal environment. At the same time, extreme events such as tropical cyclones (TC) are expected to significantly impact storm surges. Global warming is expected to affect the characteristics of TCs, such as frequency, intensity, and track path. However, future changes in TC characteristics are still uncertain on both regional and global scales. This study aims to estimate the maximum potential storm surge height (MPS) along bays in East Asia and Japan using data from the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of a TC.