Nitrogen enrichment delays the emergence of an aridity-induced threshold for plant biomass

Abstract Crossing certain aridity thresholds in global drylands can lead to abrupt decays of ecosystem attributes such as plant productivity, potentially causing land degradation and desertification. It is largely unknown, however, whether these thresholds can be altered by other key global change drivers known to affect the water-use efficiency and productivity of vegetation, such as elevated CO2 and nitrogen (N) enrichment. Using > 5000 empirical measurements of plant biomass, we show that crossing an aridity (1–precipitation/potential evapotranspiration) threshold of ∼0.50, which marks the transition from dry sub-humid to semi-arid climates, leads to abrupt declines in aboveground biomass (AGB) and progressive increases in the root: shoot ratios, thus importantly affecting carbon stocks and their distribution. N enrichment significantly increased AGB and delayed the emergence of its aridity threshold from 0.49 to 0.55 (P < 0.05). By coupling remote sensing estimates of leaf area index with simulations from multiple models, we found that CO2 enrichment did not alter the observed aridity threshold. By 2100, and under the RCP 8.5 scenario, we forecast a 0.3% net increase in the global land area exceeding the aridity threshold detected under a scenario that includes N enrichment, in comparison to a 2.9% net increase if the N effect is not considered. Our study thus indicates that N enrichment could mitigate to a great extent the negative impact of increasing aridity on plant biomass in drylands. These findings are critical for improving forecasts of abrupt vegetation changes in response to ongoing global environmental change.