Establishment and validation of a nomogram model for predicting adverse pregnancy outcomes of pregnant women with adenomyosis

Purpose To establish a reliable nomogram model to predict the risk of major adverse pregnancy outcomes in pregnant women with adenomyosis, and to provide a reference tool for the hierarchical management and the prenatal examination of pregnant women. Methods We collected the clinical data of pregnant women with adenomyosis who were treated in the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, the Women and Children’s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, and Yubei District People’s Hospital of Chongqing from January 2014 to June 2020. They were divided into the training cohort and the validation cohort, respectively. In the training cohort, we screened out risk factors associated with major adverse pregnancy outcomes and established a model, which was subsequently validated. Results In the training cohort, we found that previous parity, natural conception or not, type of adenomyosis, with or without endometriosis, history of infertility or adverse pregnancy outcomes, and history of uterine body surgery were associated with major adverse pregnancy outcomes of pregnant women with adenomyosis, and based on these factors, a nomogram model was constructed. The calibration curves of the model were well fitted in both the training and validation cohorts. The receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) showed that the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.873 and 0.851 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The optimal risk threshold of the model was 0.22, and this threshold can be applied to risk stratification of pregnant women. Conclusion The nomogram model established in this study can reliably predict the risk of major APO in pregnant women with AD.