Low-efficient aircraft affecting future aviation carbon transfer among South American countries

As a developing region, South America's aviation industry has also developed rapidly, and its carbon emissions have a significant role in achieving carbon neutrality in the global aviation industry. However, the problem of carbon transfer caused by passenger flow on international routes has not been addressed, especially in South America. This paper uses the Modified Fuel Percentage Method (MFPM) method and the ICAO standard method to calculate the CO2 emissions of international routes in South America, containing the emissions of each route and each airline. Then we calculate the carbon emissions transfer and carbon compensations generated from South American international routes. In addition, this paper reasonably predicts the carbon emission data from 2023 to 2027 under three different scenarios (L&2027&100%, M&2026&100%, and H&2027&90%). We find that the five countries receiving the most considerable amount of carbon compensation are Argentina, Brazil, Peru, Colombia, and Chile, which is different from the ranking in 2019–2021. In addition, frequently using old and low-efficient aircraft is also a fundamental reason for excessive carbon emissions. Therefore, this paper provides reliable data support and reasonable emission reduction suggestions for the carbon emission control of South America's aviation industry.