Covid-19, intentions to change modes, and how they materialized - Results from a random survey of Californians

Drawing insights from a random survey of Californians conducted in May 2021, we explore how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted Californians' preferences for various transportation modes and analyze obstacles to increasing transit use. As COVID-19 disrupted habits and created health concerns for shared modes, many Californians expressed a desire to use transit and transportation network companies less after the pandemic, while intentions for driving were mixed. However, intentions to drive less did not materialize, possibly because the pandemic reinforced Californians' car use habits, and many firms have been urging their employees to return to the office. Without new incentives and measures that increase the generalized cost of driving, the future of transit appears grim, as the intentions of the 28.9% of Californians 18 and over who intended to use transit less post-COVID (versus only 7.3% who wanted to use it more) appear to be realized. Hispanics, choice riders, and those who intend to telecommute more post-pandemic stated that they would use transit less. A silver lining is the substantial uptick in intentions to walk and bike more (25.9%), with just 8% of Californians stating the opposite. The main reasons Californians would not take transit post-pandemic do not include health concerns and are the same in 2021 as in 2017: a personal vehicle offers more flexibility and convenience. Younger adults, people with more education, and affluent households (the so-called "choice riders") also deplore transit's insufficient reach and frequency. Our work underscores the intricate interplay between the pandemic, transportation intentions, and actual behavior.