Correction to: Evaluation of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS T1534) for the probabilistic prediction of cyclonic disturbances over the North Indian Ocean during 2020 and 2021

With increasing number of cyclonic disturbances (CDs) over the North Indian Ocean, the prediction of pre-genesis, along with the accurate forecast of the track and intensity, is the need of the hour. The present study evaluates the skill of prediction of genesis as well as the verification of CDs (total of 16 cases are considered) that occurred during the year 2020–2021, using Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) T1534. Different initial conditions with longer lead hours are analysed for genesis, track, intensity and landfall errors. The model has the ability to predict genesis location with error of about ~200 km at day 2 lead. Verification of all CDs indicates that the landfall in terms of time and position is well predicted by the model. In general, the model shows the northward bias in genesis location error for the initial 12 hours and after that southwestward bias. From depression till dissipation, the track error for ensemble mean is less than that of the control run. The track error is less than 150 km for ensemble mean till day 3 and is about 220 km on day 4. The model shows northward bias in predicting the track of CDs. For predicting the landfall locations, southwestward bias is shown by model. The probabilistic ensemble skill scores are also evaluated for GEFS T1534, which shows reasonable skill.