Surrogate Deep Learning to Estimate Uncertainties for Driver Intention Recognition.

Real-world applications of artificial intelligence that can potentially harm human beings should be able to express uncertainty about the made predictions. Probabilistic deep learning (DL) methods (e.g., variational inference [VI], VI last layer [VI-LL], Monte-Carlo [MC] dropout, stochastic weight averaging - Gaussian [SWA-G], and deep ensembles) can produce a predictive uncertainty but require expensive MC sampling techniques. Therefore, we evaluated if the probabilistic DL methods are uncertain when making incorrect predictions for an open-source driver intention recognition dataset and if a surrogate DL model can reproduce the uncertainty estimates. We found that all probabilistic DL methods are significantly more uncertain when making incorrect predictions at test time, but there are still instances where the models are very certain but completely incorrect. The surrogate DL models trained on the MC dropout and VI uncertainty estimates were capable of reproducing a significantly higher uncertainty estimate when making incorrect predictions.