Non-Linear Nexus of Technological Innovation and Carbon Total Factor Productivity in China

Scientific and technological innovation is the main driving force of the growth in the 14th Five-Year Plan with the aim of “carbon peaking and neutralization.” This research analyzes the carbon total factor productivity (CTFP) improvement mechanism induced by micro-subject technological innovation and macro-technological progress (TP). This research constructed the Malmquist index based on a relaxed nonparametric DEA model, measured the TP level and CTFP in China, and considered the non-strict externalization of technological progress. The endogenous dynamic threshold model was used to test the nonlinear dynamic effect of TP driving the increase in CTFP. Through the intertemporal distance DEA model, undesired output model, and dynamic threshold regression model, we found that science and technology innovation of the TP drive the function of the carbon total factor productivity; there was a threshold effect (−0.556) on the driving impact of TP caused by technological innovation on CTFP, and the lag period of TP and CTFP had a positive driving role for CTFP. The driving effect on the left side of the threshold value was better than that on the right side. Considering the reality of slowing down the growth of capital and labor factor input in the 14th Five-Year Plan, it is essential to take active policy measures to promote the growth rate of TP by promoting the speed of micro-scientific and technological innovation. It is crucial to promote green TP in micro renewable energy enterprises, which, in turn, drive the growth of CTFP, improve the performance of low-carbon development, and reduce the negative impact of the “two-carbon” target on economic growth while realizing low-carbon transition.