Collapse of scallop Nodipecten nodosus production in the tropical Southeast Brazil as a possible consequence of global warming and water pollution.

Mollusc rearing is a relevant global socioeconomic activity. However, this activity has faced severe problems in the last years in southeast Brazil. The mariculture scallop production dropped from 51,2 tons in 2016 to 10,2 tons in 2022 in the Baia da Ilha Grande (BIG; Rio de Janeiro). However, the possible causes of this collapse are unknown. This study aimed to analyze decadal trends of water quality in Nodipecten nodosus spat and adult production in BIG. We also performed physical-chemical and biological water quality analyses of three scallop farms and two nearby locations at BIG in 2022 to evaluate possible environmental stressors and risks. Scallop spat production dropped drastically in the last five years (2018-2022: mean ± stdev: 0.47 ± 0.45 million). Spat production was higher in colder waters and during peaks of Chlorophyll a in the last 13 years. Reduction of Chlorophyll a coincided with decreasing spat production in the last five years. Warmer periods (>27 °C) of the year may hamper scallop development. Counts of potentially pathogenic bacteria (Vibrios) and Escherichia coli were significantly higher in warmer periods which may further reduce scallop productivity. Shotgun metagenomics of seawater samples from the five studied corroborated these culture-based counts. Vibrios and fecal indicator bacteria metagenomic sequences were abundant across the entire study area throughout 2022. The results of this study suggest the collapse of scallop mariculture is the result of a synergistic negative effect of global warming and poor seawater quality.