Factors that influence pastoralists’ estimation of onset and cessation of rains in Rwenzori region in Western Uganda

There have been improvements in scientific forecast dissemination through radio, internet, and mobile phones in Eastern and Southern Africa, however pastoralists remain unreached. Majority of pastoralists are not using scientific forecasts routinely to estimate rainfall onset and cessation. Indigenous knowledge forecasts (IF) play an important role in pastoralists' decision-making related to rangeland use and climate change adaptation. This study examined the factors that influence the estimation of climatological onset and cessation of rains among pastoralists in Rwenzori region in western Uganda. Data were gathered from 269 pastoralists’ households about socio-economic characteristics and rain onset and cessation estimation. The data was analyzed using the probit model. The results indicate that herd mobility, climate information use (both scientific and indigenous), wealth, education level, social capital and perception of climate variability and change were determinants of rainfall onset estimation. Agricultural extension access, having lactating cows, and perception of climate variability and change increased the likelihood of accurate estimation of rainfall cessation. Investments in weather stations in pastoral areas, constructive engagement of stakeholders in climate services, strengthening the linkage between national agricultural extension and meteorological systems would improve the estimation of rainfall onset and cessation that could result in an improved adaptive capacity of pastoralists. Mainstreaming climate change information in national agricultural extension systems and enhancing climate forecast communication through social capital could reduce the vulnerability of pastoral livelihoods to climate change.