Economic analysis of disease and control of multi-field epidemics in agriculture

Epidemics of plant diseases are estimated to cause significant economic losses in crop production. Fungicide applications are widely used to control crop diseases but incur substantial indirect costs. One essential class of indirect costs arises due to the evolution of fungicide resistance. This indirect cost must be estimated reliably to design economic policy for more sustainable use of fungicides. Such estimation is difficult because the cost depends on economic parameters and the epidemiological/evolutionary properties of crop pathogens. Even a conceptual framework for such estimation is missing. To address this problem, we combined a spatially implicit mathematical model of crop epidemics with an economic analysis at the landscape scale. We investigated how the net economic return from a landscape depends on the proportion of fungicide-treated fields. We discovered a pattern of accelerating (or decelerating) returns, contrary to expected diminishing returns. Next, we calculated the economic cost of the evolution of fungicide resistance as the difference between the optimal net return of the landscape in the absence and presence of resistance. We found that this cost depends strongly on the fungicide price, the degree of resistance, the pathogen's basic reproduction number and the yield loss due to disease. Surprisingly, the cost declines with the fungicide price and exhibits a non-monotonic pattern as a function of the basic reproduction number. Hence, to calculate the cost, we must estimate these parameters robustly, incorporating variations in environmental conditions, crop varieties and the genetic composition of pathogen populations. Appropriate estimation of the cost of resistance evolution can inform economic policy, design dynamic fungicide pricing, and encourage more sustainable use of fungicides. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest.