Sea level rise adaptation pushes an insular endemic rodent closer to extinction

Understanding how species will respond to a rapidly changing global climate is requisite to conserving biodiversity. Though habitat losses from human development and land use change remain the most critical threats to biodiversity globally, some regions, such as low-lying islands, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Despite this vulnerability, there may be opportunities for imperiled species on islands to adapt to the effects of climate-induced sea level rise. To understand how the response to rising seas may influence the amount of future habitat, we investigated shifts in the elevational range of the endangered silver rice rat ( Oryzomys palustris natator; hereafter “rice rat”), a species endemic to tidal environments of the Lower Florida Keys, USA. We quantified fine-scale habitat use using radio telemetry of collared animals, first in 2004, and again in 2021, thus spanning a 17-year period during which the local sea level rose by 0.142 m. We observed a shift in the elevational range limits of rice rats which closely mirrored the rise in sea level, and that this apparent ability to adapt to rising sea level decreased the extent of habitat loss in subsequent decades. However, over longer time scales (~ 100 yrs), the extent of habitat loss from sea level rise outpaced rice rats’ ability to adapt. As such, the conservation of biodiversity on low-lying islands hinges on the ability of the global community to decrease anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the associated consequences for the global climate. Otherwise, conservation practitioners will be increasingly forced to make difficult decisions about how to conserve imperiled species on low-lying islands.