Global Atmospheric ¹³CH₄ and CH₄ Trends for 2000-2020 from the Atmospheric Transport Model TM5 Using CH₄ from Carbon Tracker Europe-CH₄ Inversions

This study investigates atmospheric delta(CH4)-C-13 trends, as produced by a global atmospheric transport model using CH4 inversions from CarbonTracker-Europe CH4 for 2000-2020, and compares them to observations. The CH4 inversions include the grouping of the emissions both by delta(CH4)-C-13 isotopic signatures and process type to investigate the effect, and to estimate the CH4 magnitudes and model CH4 and delta(CH4)-C-13 trends. In addition to inversion results, simulations of the global atmospheric transport model were performed with modified emissions. The estimated global CH4 trends for oil and gas were found to increase more than coal compared to the priors from 2000-2006 to 2007-2020. Estimated trends for coal emissions at 30 degrees N-60 degrees N are less than 50% of those from priors. Estimated global CH4 rice emissions trends are opposite to priors, with the largest contribution from the EQ to 60 degrees N. The results of this study indicate that optimizing wetland emissions separately produces better agreement with the observed delta(CH4)-C-13 trend than optimizing all biogenic emissions simultaneously. This study recommends optimizing separately biogenic emissions with similar isotopic signature to wetland emissions. In addition, this study suggests that fossil-based emissions were overestimated by 9% after 2012 and biogenic emissions are underestimated by 8% in the inversion using EDGAR v6.0 as priors.