PREDICTION OF THE DISTRIBUTION AREA AND ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES OF POPULUS EUPHRATICA AND POPULUS PRUINOSA IN CHINA BASED ON THE OPTIMIZED MAXENT MODEL

Populus euphratica (Pe) and Populus pruinosa (Pp) are important dominant species for maintaining ecological balance in desert and arid areas. Understanding the distribution of potentially suitable areas of Pe and Pp in arid areas is of great significance for the protection and restoration of natural Pe and Pp forests. The optimized MaxEnt was used to reconstruct and predict the potential suitable areas of Pe and Pp in China, and calculate the migration of distribution center points. The results showed that (1) the geographical distribution of Pe was mainly affected by coldest month minimum temperature (Bio6), mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter (Bio10). The geographical distribution of Pp was mainly affected by coldest month minimum temperature (Bio6), temperature Annual Range (Bio7); (2) under the current climatic scenarios, the potential suitable areas of Pe and Pp in China are 141.16 x 104 km2 and 172.25 x 104 km2;(3) The niche overlap D and I values of Pe and Pp were 0.533 and 0.775 respectively; (4) under the future climate scenario, the potential high-fitness area of Pe and Pp would shift to higher latitudes. Our research provides a scientific basis for the long-term protection and management of these rare natural resources.