Socio-spatial factors influence climate change adaptation decisions of rural coastal landowners

Context Sea level rise will have unprecedented impacts on rural coastal communities. Adaptation will be a critical strategy to reduce community vulnerability, but requires a change in land management behaviors, the capacity for which is affected by a wide range of social-psychological factors. Objectives Because much of the USA coastal landscape is privately owned, success of climate change adaptation strategies in communities depends on landowner support. We take a step in determining coastal community resilience by identifying the factors influencing landowners’ adaptation decisions. Methods We used a stated preference experiment, administered via household survey in rural coastal North Carolina, USA, to elicit landowners’ climate change adaptation intentions. We combined survey responses with spatial data on landowner- and landscape-characteristics to map adaptation support for the study area. We identified the set of scenarios resulting in the greatest adaptation benefit by overlaying models of sea level rise. Results We found adaptation support was higher for forest landowners than agricultural landowners; both preferred programs with higher payments and shorter contract lengths. Adaptation by neighboring landowners increased support, regardless of payment level or contract length. Maps of adaptation support did not directly align with objective risk maps, highlighting the need to consider diverse socio-spatial characteristics driving decision-making. Conclusions By integrating social preference data with landscape models, we mapped the aggregate impacts of social processes on the location of intended adaptation. Results from this study can motivate resource managers to consider diverse social–psychological factors as they develop climate change adaptation incentives for long-term resilience.