Individualized risk assessment of distant metastases in oral cavity carcinoma: a validated predictive-score model

Background: We aimed to develop and validate a risk-scoring system for distant metastases (DMs) in oral cavity carcinoma (OCC). Methods: Patients with OCC who were treated at 4 tertiary cancer institutions with curative surgery with or without postoperative radiation/chemoradiation therapy were randomly assigned to discovery or validation cohorts (3:2 ratio). Cases were staged on the basis of tumor, node, and metastasis staging according to the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control guidelines. Predictors of DMs on multivariable analysis in the discovery cohort were used to develop a risk-score model and classify patients into risk groups. The utility of the risk classification was evaluated in the validation cohort. Results: Overall, 2749 patients were analyzed. Predictors (risk score coefficient) of DMs in the discovery cohort were the following: pathological stage (p)T3-4 (0.4), pN+ (N1: 0.8; N2: 1.0; N3: 1.5), histologic grade (G) 3 (G3, 0.7), and lymphovascular invasion (0.4). The DM risk groups were defined by the sum of the following risk score coefficients: high (>1.7), intermediate (0.7-1.7), and standard risk (<0.7). The 5-year DM rates (high/intermediate/standard risk groups) were 30%/15%/4% in the discovery cohort (C-index = 0.79) and 35%/16%/5% in the validation cohort, respectively (C-index = 0.77; both P < .001). In the whole cohort, this predictive model showed excellent discriminative ability in predicting DMs without locoregional failure (29%/11%/1%), later (>2 year) DMs (11%/4%/2%), and DMs in patients treated with surgery (20%/12%/5%), postoperative radiation therapy (34%/17%/4%), and postoperative chemoradiation therapy (39%/18%/7%) (all P < .001). The 5-year overall survival rates in the overall cohort were 25%/51%/67% (P < .001). Conclusions: Patients at higher risk for DMs were identified by use of a predictive-score model for DMs that included pT3-4, pN1/2/3, G3, and lymphovascular invasion. Identified patients may be evaluated for individualized risk-adaptive treatment escalation and/or surveillance strategies.