Absolute stress levels in models of low-heat faults: Links to geophysical observables and differences for crack-like ruptures and self-healing pulses

Absolute levels of stress on faults have profound implications for earthquake physics and fault mechanics. A number of observations suggest that well-developed, mature faults such as the San Andreas Fault are generally “weak,” i.e. operate at much lower levels of shear stress compared to the higher expected shear resistance ∼100 MPa at seismogenic depths. In particular, low heat flow measurements suggest shear stress levels of ∼10 MPa or less on highly localized faults. Geodynamic constraints based on topography and similar considerations also support “weak” fault operation, and are comparable with heat-based constraints for some mature faults, but potentially higher for regions with substantial topography. Here, we investigate measures of average fault shear stress and their relationship to geophysically inferable quantities using numerical simulations of earthquake sequences on rate-and-state faults with low heat production, due to chronic fluid overpressure and/or enhanced dynamic weakening from the thermal pressurization of pore fluids. We review the earthquake energy balance, focusing on energy-based definitions of average shear stress and how the average fault prestress (a measure of fault strength plausibly relevant to geodynamic constraints) can be expressed as the sum of the dissipation-based average rupture stress (which can, in principle, be inferred from shear-heating constraints), and seismologically inferable source properties, such as the static stress drop and apparent stress. Our modeling demonstrates that rapid dynamic weakening and healing of shear resistance during ruptures, as exhibited in self-healing pulses, allows faults to maintain higher average interseismic stress levels despite low dynamic resistance and realistic static stress drops, providing a physical explanation for potential differences between topography-based and heat-based constraints on fault shear stress. In our models, the difference is related to stress undershoot and apparent stress, which can be as large as 1-3 times the static stress drop based on our simulations. Yet suitably large values of apparent stress (and hence radiated energy) are rarely inferred for natural earthquakes, either because radiated energy is underestimated, or suggesting that most large earthquakes do not propagate as sharp enough self-healing pulses with sufficiently large undershoot. Our results emphasize the distinction between dynamic versus static stress changes when relating earthquake source observations to absolute levels of fault stress and suggest that reviewing estimates of radiated energy and static stress drop from large earthquakes, with input from finite-fault numerical modeling, may improve constraints on absolute fault stress levels.