Medical School Performance as A Predictor of Scores in the National Medical Specialization Exam in Turkey

Abstract Background Medical educators and assessors like to include predictive validity in their validity arguments but relevant evidence may be difficult to find. External standardized examinations may have a role in validating both the educational process of medical schools and their assessment results and outcomes. A strong correlation between medical school and external exam performances may also lend evidence of validity to the external examination. This work from one of Turkey’s top medical schools explored the correlations between students’ medical school performances and scores from the Specialization in Medicine Exam (TUS). The TUS is a post-graduate national ranking examination. Methods A total of 246 students from two different programs of a medical school, which have identical curricula but different admission scores were studied retrospectively. Students’ year based Grade Point Averages (GPAs) and end-of-school (graduating) GPAs were calculated using a weighted mean method. Bivariate correlations were calculated between year specific GPAs, graduating GPAs and TUS scores. Results Students’ inter-year GPAs showed strong significant correlations (“r” ranging from 0.59 to 0.86, p < 0.001). Their graduating GPA also had a strong significant correlation with TUS scores (r = 0.65, p < 0.001). Linear regression models showed the significant relation between medical school performance and post-graduation national exam performance. Conclusion Student success has a high degree of consistency throughout the medical school and students’ performance across all domains of assessment in the undergraduate program might be a good predictor of cognitive skills in an external national examination in the early postgraduate phase.