Water Shortage Risk Considering Encounter Situation of Water Supply in Multi-Resource Water City

Abstract For multi-source water supply city, water supply varies due to different inflow conditions, which brings more uncertainty to water resources management. Therefore, it is necessary to scientifically evaluate and give countermeasures in advance. Based on the data sequence of Location, Yellow River and South-to-North Water Transfer in Zhengzhou from 1989 to 2018, the joint probability distribution model is constructed by using the optimized marginal distribution function and Copula function. The encounter probability is calculated, and the risk analysis is carried out according to the water shortage of each user under different encounters. The results show:①The probability of asynchronous is 85.96%, it is 71.92% higher than the probability of synchronous, which indicates that the three water sources complement each other well; ②Local water supply has the greatest impact on the risk of water shortage in Zhengzhou. Local water should be used reasonably and efficiently, and the external water source should be used as a supplement; ③The maximum encounter probability is 13.58%, all users except domestic water are in a water shortage state, the most serious water shortage in the industry is (-2.049, -1.089) billion m³. The minimum encounter probability is 1.14%, all users have different degrees of water shortage, the shortage of domestic water is (-3.037, 0.779) billion m³second only to industrial water shortage, the reservoir should be jointly dispatched and the groundwater exploitation should be increased to maintain the security of the urban water supply system and ensure the normal water use of social life.