Multi-hazard assessment at Mt. Etna volcano, Italy

<p>The effects of volcanic hazards can be quantified by applying new methods to provide support for rational decision-making. Mt Etna is one the most active volcanoes in the world, producing both effusive and explosive eruptions together with a very intense seismic activity, which significantly affect the territory and human society. We present the preliminary results obtained in the framework of the PANACEA project (INGV&#8217;s project &#8220;Pianeta Dinamico&#8221;, funded by the Italian Ministero dell&#8217;Universit&#224; e la Ricerca, MUR) regarding the multi-hazard assessment around Mt Etna. These include: (i) the production of an updated spatio-temporal probability map of vent opening at Etna, using a procedure exploiting different Kernel functions (e.g. the exponential, Cauchy, and Gaussian functions), and testing volcanic deformation patterns to explore possible dynamic, structural conditioning on the vent opening process; (ii) the identification of a set of cascading effects scenarios that account for volcanic phenomena (i.e., volcanic unrest, seismicity, volcanic explosions, volcanic effusive events, lava flows, tephra/ballistic fall, and PDC), as well as other external hazards potentially linked in such chains (e.g., flooding, forest fires, etc.); and (iii) the identification of scenarios involving systemic impacts (e.g., impacts on the functionality or connectivity of networks).</p>